Researchers identify AI and other threats to global health by 2100

A roadmap for global health

A commission of 35 leaders from various industries has identified a range of interconnected catastrophic threats that pose significant risks to global wellbeing. These threats are expected to impact human health through the remainder of the 21st century, potentially leading to the loss of tens of billions of years of good health. The findings were published in the journal The Lancet and utilize data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s Global Burden of Disease study.

The commission's goal is not to rank these dangers against one another but to catalyze specific actions at the international, regional, and national levels. The report suggests that while the scale of these risks is striking, humanity still possesses the agency to avoid the worst-case scenarios. By identifying these specific threats, the commission aims to provide a framework for leaders to protect the future of humanity.

The list of threats is diverse, spanning health conditions, behaviors, economic conditions, environmental changes, technology, and conflict. This includes well-known issues like high blood pressure and mental health alongside more complex global shocks. The commission argues that delaying action on these issues will only serve to increase the costs and severity of the impacts for future generations.

The risk of malicious AI

Artificial intelligence is highlighted as a primary concern, specifically regarding its potential for malicious use. The commission identifies this as one of two threats—alongside nuclear conflict—that pose a risk of extinction for the human species. This finding aligns with recent warnings from industry workers and companies like Anthropic, which suggested that AI models could pose existential risks.

The report notes that there is a wide divergence among various forecasters regarding the exact level of risk posed by AI-related catastrophes. Because no malicious AI event of a truly global magnitude has occurred yet, the estimates for these risks remain theoretical. However, the commission views the rapid development of powerful AI as a clear example of how quickly assumptions about stability can be overturned.

Despite its theoretical nature, the commission estimates that malicious AI could account for about 10.4 billion years of lost healthy life worldwide by the year 2100. This figure is roughly equivalent to the projected impact of other risks, such as naturally occurring pandemics or obesity. The report emphasizes that the emergency of these systems requires immediate attention to prevent a sudden shift from stability to crisis.

Empirical data on obesity

In contrast to the theoretical risks of AI, the threat of obesity is backed by significant empirical data. The commission notes that overweight and obesity rates are currently increasing in every country across the globe. Estimates suggest that by 2050, the global rate could reach 60% of adults and one-third of children.

Obesity is linked to dozens of other poor health outcomes, particularly those associated with increased caloric intake and a lack of physical activity. The commission forecasts a major global impact from this cluster of behavioral risks. Because these trends are already visible in current data, they represent a tangible and immediate challenge for public health systems.

The report suggests that these health conditions are often amplified by existing inequalities, with the heaviest burdens falling on the most vulnerable communities. Addressing these issues requires more than just individual choices; it requires systemic changes to food systems and social structures. The commission argues that the future of global health depends on how effectively these behavioral risks can be managed on a massive scale.

The role of trust and leadership

A central theme of the report is that technical solutions alone are insufficient to address these catastrophic threats. The commissioners argue that robust societal and institutional foundations are necessary to foster collaboration and accountability. They identify trust as a stabilizing force that enables societies to anticipate, mitigate, and adapt to emerging dangers.

Conversely, the report warns that distrust can increase the potential for harm by hindering collective action. To counter this, the commission highlights seven other factors that will shape how societies respond to threats, including collaborative global leadership and efforts to foster more equitable societies. These elements are seen as essential for building a more secure future for coming generations.

The commission points out that public health history is full of examples where potential threats were known and protection plans existed, yet effective action failed. They argue that the success of future interventions depends on the decisions made by leaders today. By building trust and resilient systems, governments can move from reactive disaster response to proactive protection of global wellbeing.