Investors question Anthropic valuation ahead of Nasdaq IPO

Shifting expectations for Anthropic

Anthropic is currently preparing for its upcoming debut on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT. While the company previously aimed for a valuation as high as $2 trillion, recent market activity has forced a reassessment of those goals. Investors are now expressing skepticism about whether the company can maintain such a high price point during its public listing.

Stakeholders told CNBC that even a $1.5 trillion valuation is becoming difficult to justify in the current climate. One investor specifically described that figure as a "stretch" given the recent volatility in the technology sector. This shift indicates that the massive premiums once placed on AI leaders are facing significant downward pressure.

The company has not officially commented on these changing expectations from its backers. However, the sentiment reflects a broader trend where the market is looking for more grounded numbers. As the company gears up for its listing in a matter of weeks, the focus has shifted from maximum growth to realistic pricing.

Market volatility and AI spending

The cooling of sentiment comes on the heels of a significant tech selloff on Wall Street. The Nasdaq recently experienced its steepest drop in 19 months, falling more than 5% in a single day. This decline highlights a growing nervousness among investors regarding the massive capital expenditures required to sustain the AI boom.

There are increasing concerns about the outsized spending by companies involved in artificial intelligence. Some market participants fear that a nationwide rebuke of AI and new political dynamics in Washington could slow down the construction of data centers. These infrastructure projects are essential for training and running large-scale models, making their costs a primary concern for the market.

The bearishness on the AI trade was already building before the recent elections. The Nasdaq suffered its worst month in October since March 2025, with declines led by chipmakers and neoclouds. This trend suggests that the period of rapid, unchecked growth for AI hardware and cloud services may be hitting a temporary plateau.

Revised valuation targets

While the $2 trillion goal was the recent headline, the actual private valuation of Anthropic was reported at $965 billion as of May. This provides a much more conservative baseline for where the company currently stands in the eyes of private investors. The gap between that figure and a $2 trillion IPO price shows how much the market's appetite has shifted in a very short window.

One investor noted that a target between $1 trillion and $1.25 trillion is a more likely outcome for the IPO. They clarified that this range could still change depending on how market conditions evolve in the coming weeks. This suggests that while the peak is no longer the goal, the company is still expected to command a premium over its previous private valuation.

The move toward a $1 trillion to $1.25 trillion range represents a significant cooling from the previous month's ambitions. It reflects a desire for a more sustainable entry point for public investors. By aiming for a more moderate valuation, the company may be trying to ensure that the IPO does not fail due to over-exuberant pricing.

Navigating the IPO roadshow

Anthropic is expected to kick off its official roadshow next week to meet with potential investors. This process is critical for setting the final price of the deal and gauging the remaining appetite for the company's shares. The company's success depends heavily on how it navigates these conversations and manages the expectations of the public markets.

Gil Luria, an analyst at D.A. Davidson, noted that investors will likely expect the IPO to be priced at the low end of previous expectations. He emphasized that the market needs the IPO to go well and that the bankers involved in the deal understand this necessity. The goal is to create a stable debut that doesn't suffer from the volatility seen in other recent tech listings.

Luria stated, "The best way to set Anthropic up for success is to price the deal well." This sentiment underscores the importance of finding a balance between what the company wants and what the market is willing to pay. If the pricing is too high, it risks a poor debut; if it is too low, it may leave significant value on the table for the company's existing stakeholders.

The path forward for AI leaders

The situation surrounding Anthropic's IPO serves as a bellwether for the broader AI industry. It shows that even the most prominent players are not immune to broader macroeconomic trends and shifts in investor sentiment. As the company prepares for its Nasdaq listing, it will be under intense scrutiny to prove its long-term viability and profitability.

The focus for the next few weeks will be on the company's ability to secure a stable valuation despite the surrounding noise. Investors will be watching closely to see if the company can maintain its momentum while navigating a more cautious spending environment. The outcome of this IPO could set the tone for other AI companies looking to go public in the near future.

Ultimately, the transition from private to public markets requires a clear narrative about how the company will manage its high costs. Anthropic must convince the public that its technology can generate enough value to justify its place in the market. The upcoming roadshow will be the first major test of that narrative in a public forum.