Goldman Sachs aims to capture long-term wealth from Anthropic IPO

The double-dip strategy

Goldman Sachs is preparing for the upcoming initial public offering (IPO) of the AI startup Anthropic. While the bank will earn significant fees for coordinating the deal, it is also looking to secure a second type of profit from the event. The goal is to capture the billions of dollars in new wealth created for the company's founders, executives, and employees.

Investment banking fees are often seen as cyclical and tied to specific deal volumes. In contrast, wealth management provides more predictable and recurring revenue streams. Investors typically value these steady earnings more highly, which can improve the overall stock returns for a financial institution like Goldman Sachs.

The bank is employing a strategy it calls 'One Goldman Sachs' to capitalize on these cross-departmental relationships. By using its prestige in investment banking to open doors, the bank hopes to funnel new clients into its wealth management division. This approach allows them to turn a single transaction into a long-term advisory relationship.

The economics of the IPO

Anthropic is expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq next Thursday. The offering is projected to raise as much as $64.35 billion, making it a major test of investor appetite for the AI sector. Goldman and Morgan Stanley are co-leading the deal, meaning they are responsible for setting the price and marketing the shares to investors.

According to an analysis by Evercore ISI, the total underwriting fees for the Anthropic IPO could reach roughly $395 million. Based on a 20% share of that pool, Goldman and Morgan Stanley could each collect approximately $79 million. While these fees are substantial, they are unlikely to significantly move the needle on Goldman's total earnings.

The real value for the bank lies in the cachet of the deal. Successfully managing a high-profile AI listing helps the bank secure future deals. It also serves as a litmus test for the broader AI trade, which has faced pressure due to political opposition and recent leadership changes at other major tech firms like Nvidia.

Competing for new assets

Goldman Sachs is not the only bank looking to profit from the influx of new capital. JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Bank of America are also listed as underwriters. Each of these firms has a formidable wealth management arm and is competing to attract the assets that flow into these channels during a major listing.

Morgan Stanley has already demonstrated a successful model for this. The bank saw a record $232 billion in net new assets during the third quarter, with more than half of that coming from IPO-related flows. They achieved this by managing directed share programs, which allow employees to purchase shares in the offering before they become liquid.

By managing these programs, banks can build direct relationships with employees across various wealth levels. This allows them to serve clients as their shares vest over time. Morgan Stanley uses integrated platforms to move these assets into brokerage accounts, eventually converting those participants into long-term wealth management clients.

The 'early engagement' model

Goldman Sachs takes a slightly different approach than Morgan Stanley by focusing on the C-suite. Instead of relying primarily on employee stock plans, Goldman uses its investment banking relationships to reach founders and executives before they reach a liquidity event. They want to be at the table when the first conversations about wealth planning begin.

A Goldman Sachs spokesperson told CNBC that engaging early gives clients more flexibility. This early involvement allows for better decision-making regarding tax strategies, gifting, and liquidity management. By starting well before the IPO, the bank can position itself as a primary advisor for the most significant financial transitions in an executive's life.

However, some analysts suggest the benefits might be limited by the size of the wealth created. Because much of the IPO wealth may be spread among many employees with smaller fortunes, Goldman might not see a massive windfall from Anthropic specifically. The bigger opportunity may be the broader restoration of confidence in the IPO market.

What comes next for the market

A successful debut for Anthropic could act as a stabilizer for the AI sector. It may encourage other privately held companies to pursue public listings, creating a pipeline of new deals for the major banks. If the market moves toward a world with more high-profile IPOs, the aggregate numbers for wealth management growth could become significant.

Goldman has already shown progress in this area. The bank reported generating nearly 900 referrals to its wealth management unit from its investment banking business since the start of 2025. Its wealth management client assets reached roughly $2 trillion, with management fees rising 20% from a year earlier.

The success of this strategy depends on the bank's ability to maintain its 'phenomenal' relationships with corporate leaders. If they can continue to convert these high-profile deals into steady management fees, it will provide a more stable foundation for the bank's long-term growth compared to the volatile nature of traditional dealmaking.