ChatGPT query volume reaches one-fifth of Google search

The rise of AI search volume

OpenAI recently disclosed that ChatGPT is now handling a significant portion of the queries typically directed at traditional search engines. Adam Fry, the consumer product lead at OpenAI, stated that the volume of search-like queries on the platform is roughly one-fifth of Google's volume. This measurement includes any time a user asks a question that triggers a web search, such as lookups for people, places, things, finance, and health.

The growth of the platform has been rapid, with OpenAI reporting that it added 100 million new users every month for two consecutive months. This surge has pushed the total user count from one billion to 1.2 billion over just two months. Because of this scale, the platform is now considered larger than Bing, which holds a 5% search share.

While Google maintains that its own search volume is at an all-time high, the comparison for advertisers is becoming more critical. A fifth of Google's query volume represents an audience large enough to justify its own specific budget line. As users increasingly find answers within chat interfaces, the firms that previously sold traffic on the open web are beginning to feel the impact of this shift.

Impact on web publishers

The rise of AI summaries is already creating measurable financial consequences for companies that distribute native advertising. Taboola reported a 6.9% drop in quarterly revenue, which fell to $462.3 million, citing fewer ad impressions and the growth of AI-generated summaries. The company noted that the environment in which they operate is changing as consumers discover and engage with content differently across the open web.

This trend suggests that when users get answers directly within a chatbot, they are less likely to click through to the original articles. This thins the available inventory for native advertising, which typically sells placements beneath articles. Taboola's fourth-quarter guidance implies a 7% fall at the midpoint, reflecting the ongoing transition toward AI-first information discovery.

Other publishers are seeing mixed results as they navigate this new landscape. While the New York Times saw a 12% rise in digital advertising revenue, it fell below the company's own internal forecasts. The data suggests that while direct relationships with audiences can provide some stability, the broader shift toward AI-mediated discovery remains a significant headwind for traditional publishers.

Licensing and data rights

As AI models become more integral to information retrieval, the companies running them are starting to pay for the data they use. Anthropic recently struck its first licensing deal with the Associated Press to provide up-to-the-minute election coverage. This marks the initial instance of Anthropic providing payment to a digital news organization for the right to use its content.

The deal was necessary because polling and election results change by the minute and cannot be accurately inferred from static training data. By paying for this access, Anthropic aims to ensure its chatbot remains a trusted source of information during high-stakes events. This follows a pattern established by OpenAI, which has already negotiated more than a dozen similar deals with outlets like News Corp and The Atlantic.

Industry experts suggest that an information index without access to current data is severely limited in its utility. By securing these deals, AI companies are attempting to bridge the gap between historical training and real-time information. This shift creates a new economy where publishers may rely on licensing fees to compensate for the loss of direct click-through traffic.

New growth channels

Despite the challenges facing traditional web traffic, some companies are finding significant growth within the AI ecosystem. Criteo reported that ChatGPT has become its fastest-growing channel for several months. The company expanded its presence on the platform from seven countries to 89, seeking to integrate its retail media capabilities into the chat experience.

Criteo is also expanding its reach into other emerging areas, such as Performance Connected TV, which it expects to double in the fourth quarter. The company's growth strategy now includes AI platform advertising and social integrations, which account for 13% of its Commerce Growth business. These diverse channels are becoming essential as the retail media landscape evolves.

Meanwhile, other platforms are integrating AI to help sellers manage their operations. TikTok Shop introduced 'Seller AI' to provide estimates on extra orders for listings ahead of major shopping events like Black Friday. These tools are designed to help merchants navigate the busiest weeks of the year by providing data-driven insights on potential demand.