Arthur Hayes warns of massive share supply shocks for SpaceX and Anthropic

The impending share supply shock

Arthur Hayes argues that the private tech giants SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are approaching a period of significant share dilution. He suggests that as insider shares become free to trade, a massive supply of stock will hit the market. This 'unlock and dump' scenario could put downward pressure on the valuations of these high-profile companies.

For SpaceX specifically, Hayes notes that the number of publicly traded shares has already grown by about 50% since its initial public offering. He projects that an additional 8.6 billion shares will be available by the end of June 2027. This increase is largely driven by the vesting of shares held by Elon Musk, which could result in about a 50% dilution for Class A shareholders.

The situation is expected to mirror a similar path for Anthropic and OpenAI as they move toward public listings. Hayes believes these companies will struggle to maintain their current valuations when locked-up shares are released. He warns that the market's current optimism is based on 'vibes' regarding the future profitability of artificial intelligence.

The math behind Anthropic and OpenAI

Anthropic recently filed its S-1 registration statement to go public on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT. Hayes analyzed the filing and noted that the company intends to spend roughly $900 billion on compute commitments. Because of this massive spending schedule, he argues it is mathematically difficult for the stock price to rise between its listing and June 2027.

To stabilize the price during a potential selloff, Hayes estimates it would take about $1.245 trillion in new money if Anthropic is valued at $1.5 trillion. He suggests investors should view Anthropic more like an oil and gas company than a software firm. This is because customers pay for usage, and previous spending does not guarantee that future demand will remain constant.

OpenAI is described by Hayes as potentially facing the worst outcome of the three companies. He points out that OpenAI has a more concentrated customer base and a higher burn rate than Anthropic. Reports indicate OpenAI has already lowered its fundraising target from $30 billion to $20 billion and reduced its valuation from $1.5 trillion to $1.25 trillion.

From AI dilution to credit squeezes

The core of Hayes's argument is that these companies cannot borrow money in debt markets on their own. They require public status to access these markets, and if their share prices fall, lenders will demand higher yields. This increase in costs would eat into the loans provided to these tech giants, potentially creating a credit squeeze.

Hayes identifies a specific transmission channel between the AI industry and the cryptocurrency market. He notes that bank loans powered the crypto rally that began in August, but U.S. bank balance sheets have recently contracted. If the AI trade falters and credit tightens, it could create a broader crisis in the general market environment.

He compares the current situation to the 2016 history of Zcash (ZEC). In that instance, early adopters bought at high prices while only a small amount of the token was available. Hayes notes that while the market cap grew, many early holders remained underwater because they traded the price per token rather than the total market value.

The path to a central bank bailout

Despite the potential for a market slump, Hayes believes the ultimate outcome for digital assets could be positive. He predicts that central banks will eventually be forced to print money once the AI-driven slump turns into a systemic crisis. This intervention would increase liquidity, which he believes would be 'glorious' for Bitcoin and other crypto holders.

While the short-term outlook involves volatility and dilution, Hayes advises patience for those holding crypto. He suggests that the current 'bearish' sentiment on platforms like Stocktwits may be a precursor to this cycle. His family office, Maelstrom, intends to stay clear of these specific investments for the time being.

The transition from an AI-led expansion to a credit-driven contraction represents a major shift in market dynamics. Investors will need to watch how the liquidity flows from the tech sector into the broader financial system. The interplay between corporate share supply and central bank policy will likely define the next phase of the market.