Anthropic warns natural gas supply could limit AI growth

The energy bottleneck

Anthropic recently disclosed a significant near-term risk in its IPO filing regarding the company's need for natural gas. As the demand for AI computing grows, data centers are increasingly relying on private natural gas plants to power their operations. This shift is happening because many companies want to build their own power sources rather than waiting years for connections to the existing electrical grid.

The scale of this demand is substantial. Energy analyst company Cleanview estimates that behind-the-meter gas projects—facilities that generate power for a single site rather than the public grid—are set to reach 110 gigawatts by October 2026. This represents a massive jump from just 20 gigawatts in July 2025, signaling a rapid acceleration in infrastructure development.

Anthropic warns that this buildout could drive up prices in specific regions. The company expressed concern that competition for fuel could lead to "fuel price volatility and supply disruptions that are outside of our control." These factors may make it harder for the company to secure the firm fuel supplies necessary to maintain its AI ambitions.

Diversifying from the cloud

Historically, Anthropic has relied on renting computing power from major cloud service providers. The company specifically named giants like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and SpaceX in its filing. For example, Anthropic has rented space from SpaceX’s Colossus data centers in Memphis, Tennessee, which is currently facing a lawsuit over the use of unpermitted gas turbines.

To gain more control over its operations, Anthropic has begun moving toward leasing and developing its own data centers directly. This strategy is intended to lessen its dependence on other tech giants and provide more oversight of its infrastructure. The company highlighted a $50 billion partnership with Fluidstack to provide data center development and operations services.

This move toward independent infrastructure exposes Anthropic to more direct risks. By establishing sites in places like Texas and New York, the company becomes more vulnerable to regional gas supply shocks. The geographical spread of these sites means the company must navigate various local markets and potential shortages in different parts of the country.

Competition for fuel

The race for natural gas is becoming particularly intense in the Southeast. In these areas, data center projects must compete with liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals. Because US export terminals are sending more gas abroad due to geopolitical conflicts and federal support, the remaining supply for domestic use is under pressure. Export demand is expected to double over the next decade.

Texas has emerged as a national hotspot for behind-the-meter data center development. This concentration means multiple developers are competing for the same limited gas supply. Anthropic noted that this competition could drive up prices and adversely affect its ability to contract for fuel. Enrique Gonzalez, the head of gas research for the Americas at BloombergNEF, noted that if hub prices rise, it could eventually reach consumers.

The company's filing also mentions its involvement with projects in Louisiana, Texas, and West Virginia. Some of these sites could eventually become among the largest gas plants in the United States. However, the high concentration of LNG projects in Louisiana and Texas makes the gas supply in those specific areas particularly susceptible to price spikes and competition.

The role of renewables

While many look to renewable energy as a solution to both the climate crisis and the energy shortage, Anthropic's filing takes a cautious stance. The company mentions sources like solar, wind, battery storage, nuclear, and geothermal power only to dismiss them as currently insufficient. They argue these sources may not be available in the quantities or on the timelines required for their massive computing needs.

Anthropic suggests that these newer sources of generation may only be available at a higher cost. This preference for natural gas reflects the immediate need for high-capacity, reliable power to train and run large language models. The company's current strategy prioritizes the speed and scale of gas-fired power over the slower rollout of alternative energy infrastructures.

The tension between immediate AI growth and long-term energy sustainability remains a central challenge for the industry. As data centers continue to expand, the reliance on natural gas creates a complex web of economic and logistical risks. Anthropic's warnings serve as a signal that the physical limits of energy supply are becoming a primary concern for the next generation of AI development.