Anthropic IPO valuation could drop to $1.1 trillion

A cooling market for AI

Anthropic, the artificial intelligence company led by Dario Amodei, is preparing for a public stock market listing. However, the company may have to accept a significantly lower valuation than previously expected. Investors are now discussing a price range between $1.2 trillion and $1.3 trillion for the firm.

This downward shift follows a period of intense volatility on Wall Street. Some analysts are even considering a valuation as low as $1.1 trillion for the company. This is a sharp decline from the $1.4 trillion to $1.5 trillion range that investors had originally signaled to bankers.

The market sentiment shifted rapidly after a brutal trading session on the Nasdaq-100. The index fell 6.4% during that session, which erased approximately $2.3 trillion in total market value. This selloff was driven by investors moving away from AI-linked stocks in favor of more conservative positions.

Policy and political impacts

The recent selloff was tied closely to changes in the political landscape. After Democrats won control of Congress, the market reacted to pledges for tighter restrictions on data centers. These facilities are essential for training and running large-scale AI models like those produced by Anthropic.

Investors are reacting to the possibility of increased oversight and regulatory hurdles. Such policy concerns can create uncertainty for high-growth tech companies that rely on massive infrastructure. The shift suggests that political influence is becoming a primary driver of AI stock performance.

Despite these concerns, some analysts believe the company remains highly attractive. David Rainville of Sycomore noted that if the company sets a valuation toward the bottom of the range, they shouldn't have a problem finding investors. This suggests that while the price is dropping, the underlying demand for the technology remains substantial.

Impact on founders and staff

The repricing of the company has direct consequences for the people who built it. According to a report from Billionaires.Africa in October, Amodei and his co-founders were valued at roughly $13 billion each based on the firm's private worth. A lower public listing price would reduce the paper value of their individual stakes.

However, the company itself has shown significant growth despite the market's cooling. Anthropic reported revenue of $16.3 billion in the first half of 2026. This growth was fueled by a surge in demand for its Claude AI models among software developers and various businesses.

The IPO is also expected to create a significant amount of new wealth for the company's workforce. Reports indicate the offering is set to turn many staff members into millionaires. Additionally, the stake held by former Google Chief Executive Eric Schmidt could be worth up to $20 billion at the time of the listing.

The path forward for the IPO

Anthropic and its selling shareholders are expected to begin the formal marketing of the share sale next week. The strategy may involve starting with a conservative size and valuation target to gauge the market. They can then choose to raise those targets if investor demand proves to be strong.

The company is not alone in navigating this new market mood. Rival OpenAI recently raised $11 billion at a $1.25 trillion valuation. This was lower than the $1.4 trillion valuation the company had originally targeted for the funding round.

Even at the lower end of the current rumors, the firm would still be among the biggest companies to ever launch on public markets. This highlights the continued value that investors place on leading AI developers. The market is adjusting to a more sober reality, but the scale of the AI industry remains massive.