Anthropic becomes SpaceX's largest customer accounting for 34.5% of revenue

A shift in the revenue landscape

SpaceX has historically relied on the United States government as its primary source of income. However, a recent filing reveals a major shift in the company's financial structure. Anthropic has emerged as the firm's largest customer, providing a significant portion of its quarterly earnings.

According to a report by The Next Web, Anthropic made up 34.5% of SpaceX's revenue during the third quarter. This figure places the AI company ahead of the government in the hierarchy of SpaceX's most important clients. The filing identified the buyer simply as "Customer B," which refers to a buyer of computing power from SpaceX's AI unit.

The AI unit, which has been renamed Super Intelligence, is now a central pillar of the company's business model. This transition marks a move toward private sector dominance in the company's portfolio. While SpaceX did not respond to inquiries about the specific nature of this shift, the data clearly shows a new primary economic driver.

The scale of the Anthropic contract

The financial scale of the partnership between Anthropic and SpaceX is substantial. Anthropic's IPO filing indicates that it could spend as much as $120.5B on SpaceX computing through the year 2029. This represents a massive commitment of capital toward the infrastructure required to train and run large AI models.

The spending is expected to be consistent over time, with the contract potentially reaching about $3.1B a month starting in December. This high level of investment underscores the intense demand for high-performance computing in the current AI landscape. Anthropic currently rents this computing power at SpaceX's data centers located in Memphis, Tennessee.

To support this growth, SpaceX's AI unit reported turning a profit for the first time during the last quarter. This profitability comes at a time when SpaceX's overall revenue rose by 161%. The rapid scaling of these services demonstrates how quickly the infrastructure side of AI is maturing into a profitable business line.

Risk and contract flexibility

Despite the massive scale of the revenue, the arrangement contains significant caveats for SpaceX. Anthropic maintains the right to cancel its contracts with just 90 days' notice once the period reaches early 2027. This means that while the current revenue is high, it is not a permanent guarantee for the company's long-term stability.

This structure leaves SpaceX heavily exposed to the whims of a single client. If Anthropic decides to move its computing needs elsewhere or scale back its operations, SpaceX could face a sudden and dramatic drop in revenue. The ability to cancel after 2027 creates a window of uncertainty for the company's future financial planning.

The concentration of revenue from one source is a notable risk for any company, but it is particularly stark in this instance. While the current numbers are impressive, the lack of long-term permanence on the contract means SpaceX must continue to find other ways to diversify its income. The company is currently balancing a high-growth opportunity with a high-concentration risk.

The broader cloud computing market

SpaceX is positioning itself as a distinct alternative to traditional cloud providers. Elon Musk has argued that SpaceX is safer than other neoclouds, which are firms that rent out AI computing power. He suggested that these other firms face difficulties because lenders are pulling back on funding for companies without independent revenue.

Musk noted on X that debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for companies that do not have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers. By leveraging its existing infrastructure and launch businesses, SpaceX aims to present itself as a more stable and reliable option for high-demand computing. This strategy is intended to appeal to clients who need reliable power without the volatility of the broader debt market.

SpaceX is not the only major player in this space, as it also rents computing power to Google. Google pays approximately $920M a month for these services. By catering to both massive government entities and private AI giants, SpaceX is attempting to carve out a unique position in the global computing infrastructure market.

What comes next for SpaceX

The success of the Super Intelligence unit suggests that SpaceX is successfully pivoting toward becoming a major infrastructure provider. The profit reported last quarter confirms that the business model is viable. However, the company will need to manage the transition from a government-centric model to one dominated by private AI contracts.

Moving forward, the company will likely look to diversify its client base to mitigate the risk of being over-reliant on Anthropic. While the $120.5B potential spend is a major win, the 2027 cancellation clause serves as a reminder of the competitive nature of the AI hardware and cloud space. SpaceX will need to maintain its technological edge to keep these high-value clients satisfied.

Observers will be watching to see if SpaceX can maintain its 161% revenue growth rate as it navigates these new partnerships. The balance between providing services to the US government and scaling private AI infrastructure will define the company's next chapter. For now, Anthropic stands as the most significant private partner in the company's history.