Amazon and Google stand to gain more than VCs from Anthropic IPO

The scale of Anthropic's valuation

Anthropic is preparing for a public debut with a private valuation of $965 billion. Because the company is so large, even small percentage stakes represent massive amounts of capital for the investors involved.

Venture capital firms such as Menlo Ventures, Sequoia, Sound Ventures, and Spark Capital are expected to see billions in returns. However, none of these firms own more than 5% of the company, which is the threshold required to be listed on the principal stockholders’ table.

In a typical tech initial public offering, lead venture investors usually hold double-digit percentage stakes. In Anthropic's case, a 1% stake is worth nearly $10 billion, meaning Menlo Ventures' $14 billion position represents only about 1.5% of the company.

How Amazon's debt converts to equity

Amazon is positioned as one of the primary financial beneficiaries of the IPO due to its complex investment structure. Rather than just buying stock upfront, Amazon structured much of its involvement as convertible notes, which are debt instruments that turn into shares during a sale or listing.

As of June 30, Amazon holds convertible notes with $6.2 billion in principal outstanding. This amount represents Anthropic’s entire debt load. Because Anthropic's valuation rose so quickly, the value of the shares these notes will eventually become has surged significantly.

Amazon's filings valued these note holdings at $97.9 billion as of June 30. Because of this growth, Anthropic had to record a non-cash charge of $72.4 billion on its income statement for the first half of 2026 to account for the change in fair value of these liabilities.

Strategic partnerships and cloud deals

Beyond the conversion of debt into equity, Amazon has invested heavily in nonvoting preferred stock. During the second quarter, Amazon invested $10 billion in this type of equity by putting $5 billion into each of Anthropic's last two funding rounds.

When combined with the $8 billion invested in notes between 2023 and 2025, Amazon's total investment reaches about $18 billion. This gives the company a massive foothold in the AI startup while also securing a steady stream of revenue from its cloud services.

Anthropic has committed to spending at least $110 billion on Amazon Web Services (AWS) over the next decade. This ensures that even as Anthropic grows as a standalone company, it remains a primary customer for Amazon's computing infrastructure.

Google's stake in the AI landscape

Google is also set for a significant windfall from the IPO and its own cloud computing agreements with Anthropic. Court filings from early last year indicated that Google held about 14% of the company, though that stake has likely been diluted by subsequent funding rounds.

Analysts estimate that Google's current stake may be closer to 5.6% following massive rounds of investment. In addition to this equity, Google invested another $10 billion in April to maintain its position in the company.

Similar to Amazon, Google has secured a massive cloud commitment from Anthropic. The search giant has locked in at least $114 billion in cloud spending from Anthropic through the year 2033, creating a long-term financial bond between the two entities.

The tension of shared infrastructure

The relationship between these tech giants and Anthropic is complex because the cloud providers also build their own competing AI models. This creates a situation where the providers may not always have the same goals as the company they are hosting.

Anthropic's S-1 filing explicitly warns that these cloud providers are rivals in the AI space. While they profit from Anthropic's current needs, the underlying competition for AI dominance remains a significant factor in their business relationship.

The IPO highlights a unique dynamic where the winners are the companies providing the